Displacements induced by rain-related disasters in Brazil between 2013 and 2022
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.1590/1980-858525038800032206Palabras clave:
rainfall , displacement , climate changeResumen
This article aims to quantify and describe population displacements caused by precipitation-related disasters in Brazil between 2013 and 2022. To this end, only records of displacements caused by droughts, floods, storms, and landslides documented by the Internal Displacement Monitoring Centre (IDMC) database were selected. Using a descriptive approach, the study reveals that large-scale events are closely linked to intense rainfall in extensive and densely populated areas of Brazil. Particularly in villages and slums, where inadequate infrastructure coexists with socioeconomic vulnerabilities, rain-related disasters can compromise living spaces and drive displacements as mechanisms of escape and adaptation. In a context of climate crisis, such disasters are expected to occur more frequently in the future, predominantly affecting the poorest and most vulnerable populations. Therefore, prevention, adaptation, and resilience policies will become increasingly important to reduce the risks and impacts of disasters on the population.
Referencias
ÁVILA, Alvaro; JUSTINO, Flavio; WILSON, Aaron; BROMWICH, David; AMORIM, Marcelo. Recent precipitation trends, flash floods and landslides in southern Brazil. Environmental Research Letters, v. 11, n. 11, p. 114029, 2016. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/11/11/114029
BARBIERI, Alisson Flávio. Mudanças climáticas, mobilidade populacional e cenários de vulnerabilidade para o Brasil. REMHU, Revista Interdisciplinar da Mobilidade Humana, v. 19, n. 36. 2011. Disponível em: https://remhu.csem.org.br/index.php/remhu/article/view/249
BARBIERI, Alisson; DE MATTOS VIANA, Raquel; CAMPOS DE OLIVEIRA SOARES, Vanessa; ALINE SCHNEIDER, Raquel. Contribuições teóricas para uma demografia dos desastres no Brasil. Revista Brasileira de Estudos de População, v. 39, p. 1-29, 2022. DOI: https://doi.org/10.20947/S0102-3098a0227
BLACK, Richard; ADGER, W. Neil; ARNELL, Nigel W.; DERCON, Stefan; GEDDES, Andrew; THOMAS, David. The effect of environmental change on human migration. Global Environmental Change, v. 21, n. 1, p. S3-S11, 2011.
BROWN, Oli. Migration and Climate Change Migration Research Series, n. 31. Geneva: IOM. 2008. Disponível em: Disponível em: https://publications.iom.int/books/mrs-no-31-migration-and-climate-change Acesso em: 11.07.2023.
CARMO, Roberto Luiz do; ANAZAWA, Tathiane Mayumi. Mortalidade por desastres no Brasil: o que mostram os dados. Ciência & Saúde Coletiva, v. 19, n. 9, p. 3669-3681, 2014. http://dx.doi.org/10.1590/1413-81232014199.07432014
CASTELLANOS, Edwin; LEMOS, Maria Fernanda; ASTIGARRAGA, Laura; CHACÓN, Noemí; CUVI, Nicolás; HUGGEL, Christian; MIRANDA, Liliana; MONCASSIM VALE, Mariana; OMETTO, Jean Pierre; PERI, Pablo L.; POSTIGO, Julio C.; RAMAJO, Laura; ROCO, Lisandro; RUSTICUCCI, Matilde. Central and South America. In: Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2022, p. 1689-1816. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1017/9781009325844.014
CORREIA, Isac Alves; OJIMA, Ricardo; BARBIERI, Alisson F. Emigração e transferências monetárias como estratégias de adaptação às secas no Seridó Potiguar. REMHU, Revista Interdisciplinar Da Mobilidade Humana, v. 28, n. 59, p. 177-197, 2020. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1590/1980-85852503880005911
DA SILVA TAVARES, Priscila; ACOSTA, Ricardo; NOBRE, Paulo; RESENDE, Nicole Costa; CHOU, Sin Chan; LYRA, André de Arruda. Water balance components and climate extremes over Brazil under 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C of global warming scenarios. Regional Environmental Change, v. 23, n. 40, 2023. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10113-023-02042-1
DODMAN, David; HAYWARD, Bronwyn; PELLING, Mark; CASTÁN BROTO, Vanesa; CHOW, Winston; CHU, Eric; DAWSON, Richard; KHIRFAN, Luna; MCPHEARSON, Timon; PRAKASH, Anjal; ZHENG, Yan; ZIERVOGEL, Gina. Cities, settlements and key infrastructure. In: Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2022, p. 907-1040. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1017/9781009325844.008
FLATO, Martin; MUTTARAK, Raya; PELSER, André. Women, Weather, and Woes: The Triangular Dynamics of Female-Headed Households, Economic Vulnerability, and Climate Variability in South Africa. World Development, v. 19, p. 41-62, 2017. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.worlddev.2016.08.015
FLAVELL, Alex; MELDE, Susanne; MILAN, Andrea. Migration, Environment and Climate Change: Impacts. Second Report in the “Migration, Environment and Climate Change” Series. Berlin: German Environment Agency, 2020.
GIL, Antonio Carlos. Como elaborar projetos de pesquisa São Paulo: Atlas, 2002.
HOFFMANN, Roman; DIMITROVA, Anna; MUTTARAK, Raya; CUARESMA, Jesus Crespo; PEISKER, Jonas. A meta-analysis of country-level studies on environmental change and migration. Nature Climate Change, v. 10, p. 904-912, 2020. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-020-0898-6
HOFFMANN, Roman; MUTTARAK, Raya. Learn from the Past, Prepare for the Future: Impacts of Education and Experience on Disaster Preparedness in the Philippines and Thailand. World Development, v. 96, 2017. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.worlddev.2017.02.016
HUGO, Graeme. Environmental Concerns and International Migration. The International Migration Review, v. 30, n. 1, p. 105-131, 1996. DOI: https://doi.org/10.2307/2547462
IBGE. Censo Brasileiro de 2022 Rio de Janeiro: IBGE, 2022.
______. Suscetibilidade a deslizamentos do Brasil: primeira aproximação. Coordenação de Recursos Naturais e Estudos Ambientais. Rio de Janeiro: IBGE, 2019. Disponível em: Disponível em: https://biblioteca.ibge.gov.br/index.php/bibliotecacatalogo?view=detalhes&id=2101684 . Acesso em: 16.08.2023.
IDMC. Country Profile: Brazil 2019. Disponível em: Disponível em: https://www.internal-displacement.org/sites/default/files/inline-files/GRID-2019-Disasters-Figure-Analysis-Brazil.pdf Acesso em: 11.10.2023.
______. 2023 Global Report on Internal Displacement 2023. Disponível em: Disponível em: https://www.internal-displacement.org/global-report/grid2023/ Acesso em: 14.07. 2023.
______. Country Profile: Brazil 2023. Disponível em: Disponível em: https://www.internal-displacement.org/countries/brazil/ Acesso em: 11.10.2023.
IPCC. Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2023. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1017/9781009157896
McLEMAN, Robert. Climate change, migration and critical international security considerations Geneva: IOM, 2011. Disponível em: Disponível em: http://publications.iom.int/system/files/pdf/mrs42.pdf Acesso em: 24.09.2024.
______. Thresholds in Climate Migration. Population and Environment, v. 39, p. 319-338, 2018. Disponível em: Disponível em: https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s11111-017-0290-2 Acesso em: 24.09.2024.
MUTTARAK, Raya; LUTZ, Wolfgang. Is education a key to reducing vulnerability to natural disasters and hence unavoidable climate change? Ecology and Society, v. 19, n. 1, p. 42, 2014. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5751/ES-06476-190142
NAWROTZKI, Raphael J.; DeWAARD, Jack. Putting trapped populations into place: Climate change and inter-district migration flows in Zambia. Regional Environmental Change, v. 18, n. 2, p. 533-546, 2018. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10113-017-1224-3 .
PELLING, Mark. The Vulnerability of Cities: Natural Disasters and Social Resilience. London: Earthscan Publications Ltd, 2003.
REED, Holly; LUDWIG, Bernadette; BRASLOW, Laura. Forced Migration. In: WHITE, Michael (ed.). International Handbook of Migration and Population Distribution Netherlands: Springer, 2016, p. 605-625.
RIBEIRO, Wagner. Riscos e vulnerabilidade urbana no Brasil. Scripta Nova. Revista Electrónica de Geografía y Ciencias Sociales, v. XIV, n. 331, p. 65, 2010. Disponível em: Disponível em: http://www.ub.es/geocrit/sn/sn-331/sn-331-65.htm Acesso em: 12.09.2023.
SANTOS, Diego Jatobá dos; PEDRA, George U.; SILVA, Marcelo G. B. da; GUIMARÃES JÚNIOR, Carlos A.; ALVES, Lincoln M.; SAMPAIO, Gilvan; MARENGO, José A. Future rainfall and temperature changes in Brazil under global warming levels of 1.5ºC, 2ºC and 4ºC. Sustainability in Debate, v. 11, n. 3, p. 57-90, 2020. DOI: https://doi.org/10.18472/SustDeb.v11n3.2020.33933
SIRONI, Alice; BAULOZ, Céline; EMMANUEL, Milen (eds.). Glossary on Migration International Migration Law, n. 34. Geneva: IOM, 2019. Disponível em: Disponível em: https://publications.iom.int/books/international-migration-law-ndeg34-glossary-migration . Acesso em: 11.10.2023.
UNISDR. Terminology and Disaster Risk Reduction Geneva: United Nations, 2009.
VETTER, Thomas R. Descriptive Statistics: Reporting the Answers to the 5 Basic Questions of Who, What, Why, When, Where, and a Sixth, So What? Anesthesia and analgesia, v. 125, n. 5, p. 1797-1802, 2017. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1213/ANE.0000000000002471
WMO. Technical Regulations Basic Documents n. 2, Volume III: Hydrology. Geneva: WMO, 2006. Disponível em: Disponível em: https://library.wmo.int/idurl/4/35631 Acesso em: 13.07.2023.
______. Storm Surge 2021. Disponível em: Disponível em: http://www.undrr.org/quick/78592 Acesso em: 10.07.2024.
YUMI KUROKI, Larissa; RAMOS DE SOUSA, Aline; GOMES CALADO, Gabrielle; NUNES CALADO, Bianca; CARDOSO, Andrea; CLEOFÉ VALVERDE BRAMBILA, Maria. A vulnerabilidade social da região sudeste do Brasil frente à variabilidade climática. Revista Brasileira de Climatologia, v. 31, n. 18, p. 671-695, 2022. DOI: https://doi.org/10.55761/abclima.v31i
Descargas
Publicado
Número
Sección
Licencia
Derechos de autor 2024 Richard Eustáquio de Assis Moreira
Esta obra está bajo una licencia internacional Creative Commons Atribución 4.0.
Los autores/as conservarán plenos derechos de autor sobre su obra y garantizarán a la revista el derecho de primera publicación, el cuál estará simultáneamente sujeto a la Licença Creative Commons do tipo atribuição BY , que permite a terceros la redistribución, con reconocimiento de autoría y publicación inicial en esta revista.
Los autores pueden autoarchivar sus manuscritos aceptados, publicarlos en blogs personales, repositorios institucionales y redes sociales académicas, así como publicarlos en sus redes sociales personales, siempre que se incluya la cita completa de la versión original de la revista.
